Frontline communities lack sufficient information to make informed decisions on how best to prepare for the effects of climate change.
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity continue to raise global temperatures at a rapid pace, with consequences that vary around the world and include more frequent heat waves, more severe and prolonged droughts, more intense rainfall and flash floods, rising sea levels, and increasing water scarcity and food insecurity—threatening lives, livelihoods and communities.
Residents of Bangladesh don’t know if the most recent extreme weather event is a temporary condition or portends a more permanent change, and face impossible decisions about whether to stay or move. Likewise, governments and civil society organizations are at a loss as to how best to help residents adapt to climate change in place or to prepare them to relocate.
Bangladesh has invested a significant portion of its GDP in reaction to lost homes, livelihoods and other opportunities resulting from climate extremes. While this investment has helped, such losses could be minimized through a more proactive approach that equips decision-makers with the knowledge and services they need to prepare for the effects of climate change.
With an ample supply of arable land, Sudan has a large potential for agricultural production. It is one of the top 10 global producers of sorghum, an important food crop for millions of people around the globe. This large potential is hindered by a persistent low yield in primary cereal crops compared to other countries.
Like many African countries, Sudan lags behind the world in agricultural productivity due to slow adoption of important agricultural technologies such as the use of improved seeds, fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. Farmers work hard but productivity remains low. As demonstrated below, Sudan lags behind the region and the world in its rate of use of fertilizers and cereal yields. These two empirical observations are related. In particular, the low productivity of Sudanese agriculture is a chronic problem, associated with the low rate of fertilizer use, as well as other agricultural practices, and challenges in financing and marketing.
Use of nitrogen fertilizers against cereal yield (a) and times series of cereal yield (b) (Choi et al., 2022).
Climate change will have significant negative impacts on Sudan’s agricultural productivity. The warmer temperature will reduce agricultural productivity by impacting crop yields negatively. Recent research results from the Eltahir Research Group suggest that surface temperature in Sudan will increase by about 2°C in the next 30 years, with significant negative impacts on the already low crop yields, as shown in the figure below.
Change in yield of four crops in different regions in Sudan because of the change in climate by 2050 (Choi et al., 2022).