Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet will fuse long‑range climate forecasting, economic modeling and socioeconomic data into an open‑source, widely accessible system to inform local decision‑making.
Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet is about: projecting trends in key climate variables, their interactions, and impacts; communicating and sharing new knowledge about these trends broadly to support adaptation decisions by central and local governments, the national government, NGOs and international partners; demonstrating and experimenting with prototypes of new adaptation solutions; and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of these potential interventions.
In Bangladesh
Climate and economic forecasting. Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet will extend proven forecasting and simulation methods to predict climate impacts at village and community scale in southwestern Bangladesh. The team will define thresholds in terms of heatwave length and intensity, cyclone frequency and strength, flooding extent, and salinity levels of soil and groundwater, and relate these thresholds to local agricultural impacts, and economic and social conditions.
The Eltahir Group (MIT) recently completed relevant work in this area:
We are focused on three flagship field initiatives: 1) climate-resilient shelters; 2) salinity intrusion and agriculture resilience; and 3) an adaptation clinic program to share regional information on climate change and support services to empower communities to increase their resilience. For example, we are modeling future heat stress and coupling that with simulating tropical cyclone tracks passing through Bangladesh in the next 30 years, to inform cyclone and heat-stress/climate-resilient housing designs and geographic placement.
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Projected future heat stress by the change in wet bulb temperature in Bangladesh |
Simulated tropical cyclone tracks passing through Bangladesh |
Decision support. Based on these thresholds, Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet will assess if, when and how ecosystems in southwestern Bangladesh will exceed their capacity to sustain human life, or where adaptation in place is possible. Where adaptation is possible, the team will work with local communities to implement climate resilience technologies; elsewhere, Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet will work with communities to proactively manage disruptive change.
Information sharing. To ensure this information reaches the widest audience possible in Bangladesh, Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet will build a suite of information sharing tools designed for two way, multimedia communications to support low and high literate populations as well as urban and rural demographics.
In Sudan
The Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet work in Bangladesh is applicable to Sudan where the focus is on improving agricultural productivity by adapting best current practices, and on improving resilience to future climate change over the next 30 years. The work in Sudan is extensible to other regions in Africa.
To achieve the project’s goals in Sudan, we will follow three steps:
First, we will simulate the future regional climate change, and project its potential impact on the main cereal crops in the region. Second, we will develop solutions that are co-designed with local stakeholders, and evaluate their likely impact on agricultural productivity. Our solutions will incorporate soil fertility mapping to inform the targeted use of fertilizers, ensure fertilizer availability, and the use of heat tolerant seeds, all supported by public-private partnerships. Finally, these solutions will be implemented at scale and the knowledge disseminated locally through information-sharing and decision-support tools co-designed with the local community and other decision-makers, and developed by the project team.
